Ecuador Motorcycles Market runs for a new record again. Year to Date 2024 sales have been 174.746 (+6.4%), slowing the pace after a strong first half (+8.4%). Marker leader is the Chinese Shineray followed by a long list of local manufacturers.
President Daniel Noboa of the center-right National Democratic Action (ADN) alliance was elected in 2023 on a mandate to tackle the deteriorating security situation. He was able to forge a congressional alliance to raise security spending and enact tax measures. The alliance has collapsed, however, and additional reforms are unlikely before the February 2025 general elections. Polling suggests Noboa is well-positioned to win re-election given his high popularity and no clear opposition candidate.
The IMF approved a four-year USD4 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program for Ecuador in May. The program is ambitious, anchored around a 5.5% of GDP improvement in non-oil primary balance including fuel subsidies by 2028, of which revenue measures are expected to yield 3.7pp and expenditure efforts 1.8pp. The formal targets are based on the central government (CG) plus the oil subsidy account (CFDD).
The government is on track to meet the 2024 fiscal consolidation goal thanks to revenue measures already enacted, including 1.8pp of GDP in tax increases and some rationalization of fuel subsidies (2.7% of GDP in 2023). However, the IMF estimates that 1.2pp of revenue increases are transitory and will need to be replaced by permanent ones by 2028, which could prove more challenging.
In such difficult political and economic environment the motorcycle industry continues to grow up, being prefered by the local population as affordable solution for the individual mobility and, following the record established last year, even in 2024 the market is projecting to grow.
Indeed, Year to Date sales have been 174.746 (+6.4%), slowing the pace after a strong first half (+8.4%).
The growth is driven mainly by the scooter segment (+7.1%), while motorcycle segment is +6.3%.
Looking at the competitive arena, the leader is the Chinese Shineray , which pushed the market up, increasing sales by 11.7% and defending the place with a wide gap.
The second was Daytona, a local brand, reporting sales up 38.3%, advancing IGM (-3.6%), Bajaj Auto (+15.0%), Ranger (-13.2%), Tuko (+17.9%), Loncin (+15.5%) and many others.
