Italian Motorcycles Market fell down 65% in March, when all economic activities were in shut down since the 10th, due to the huge emergency created by the Covid19, with all dealers closed. The Q1 ended down 25% while we are projecting the entire 2020 at 139.000 units, down 46% with a recovery in the 2021 which will not allow the market to be back at the pre-crisis level
2020 Motorcycles Market Outlook
The Italian Motorcycles market was is a good momentum up to the end of February, with a first two months sales volume at 36.489 up 9.3% from the correspondent period last year. Just 10 days after, all dealers were shut down by the Government’ restrictions and within few days all the OEMs based in Italy have closed the plants.
In March motorcycles sales have been 8.519 (-65%) with the first quarter ended with 45.004 units (-25.7%).
We have develop a forecast for the day-after projecting the full 2020 market in a scenario which actually is the most likely, but not the only one. We foresee the re-start of commercial activities in the country starting from mid May and the return to the full activity by end of July. In this scenario the year will be really negative, despite we project a Q4 up 15% from the Q4 2019, in view of the strong economic effort that the government is currently providing in support to the entire community, with already 25 billion euros budgeted and probably at least the same spend, within our scenario.
We are not expecting the Italian economy to collapse – while hardly suffering – as the current Government is demonstrating a realistic approach and ability to react day after day at a completely new environment, having as second priority (after the citizens wellness) the economic activities sustain.
The consumer demand will recover gradually since June. The Motorcycles sector, will be hardly hit in the first half with sales down near 60% but will partially recover in the second, despite high cilinders segments will be more penalized then small engines.
The full year 2020 sales will be 139.932 down 46.3% while in the 2021 the market will be back on track with sales projected near 210.000, still far from 2019 level.
2019 Motorcycles Market Data
According to data released by the Italian Minister of Transportations, the 2019 has been an almost positive year for the two-wheeler industry with full year sales at 260.353, up 5.0%, the fifth consecutive growth in a string, confirming the position as second largest market in Europe, after France.
The 50cc segment continued to decline with only 19.091 sales in the year, down 7.6% and representing the 7.3% of the total, while the over 50cc scooter segment was 133.044 (+5.2%) representing over the half of the total. The motorcycles segment sales have been 98.387 units (+6.5%).
The strong BMW performance pushed up the touring segment (+42.1%), the fastest increasing segment. Others positive growth for the Supermoto (+16.8%) and for the Adventure (+12.9%) and Street (+10.4%).
The development of the electric segment is slower than in other European countries and in the 2019 sales have been only 5.250, up 26.6%.
The Italian market is dominated by four brands counting together over the half of the total.
Analyzing the 2019 data, the leader is Honda with 54.634 sales (+7.1%) with 21% of market share.
In second place Piaggio with 42.776 units sold (+5.9%) and 16.4 of market share. In third Yamaha with 26.645 sales (-6.4%) and 10.2% of market share followed by the Taiwanese Kymco with 24.054 (-3.5%).
In fifth place the leader among premium brands, BMW, with 15.632 sales (+13.2%) at the new all time record, first time over the 15.000 units and was followed by Ducati which underperformed with 9.155 sales, surprisingly in negative territory (-0.6%).