Germany September. Despite Q3 was negative the industry is growing 5%

Germany Motorcycles Market in the first nine months of 2019 was pulled up by the outstanding success of the new BMW 1.250 GS which already represent 5.1% of market share, boosting the brand sales on top of the list with a wide gap to all others. Piaggio is in second place ahead of Honda and Kawasaki. HarleyDavidson, Peugeot & Ducati are losing.

 

Economic Environment

German economy was hamstrung in Q2 by the external sector: Exports contracted strongly and domestic demand was unable to cushion the downturn. Private consumption growth slowed noticeably and fixed investment contracted. Data for the third quarter, meanwhile, continues to signal diverging trends. Industrial activity remained in a tough spot amid severe weakness in the manufacturing sector. In addition, consumer sentiment averaged lower in Q3 compared to the previous quarter. On the upside, the unemployment rate hit a record low in July, while the services sector expanded robustly in July and August. 

Economic growth should moderate notably this year, before accelerating slightly next year on rebounding exports. External downside risks, global trade tensions and Brexit, are seen dragging on export demand and the economy at large. However, resilient domestic demand—supported by a tight labor market and loose credit conditions—should buttress economic growth.

 

Market Trend

According to data released by the German Minister of Transportations, in the 2019 the two-wheeler industry in Germany is almost positive.

Indeed, the year started with a boost in the Q1, when sales at 47.301 units were up a solid 15.5% and kept growing with a the first half ended with 121.462 units, up 8.9%. The Q3 was negative with sales up 15.6% in July but down 10.5% and 14.7% respectively in August and September, with Year to Date September figures at 160.366, up 5.6%.

Let us to highlight as the German motorcycles market last year gained 3.3% of volume with 182.825 registrations, standing within the recent years boundaries, with the market fluctuating between 174.617 units (2012) and 212.153 (2016). 

Looking at the segment mix, the motorbike is gaining terrain year after year while scooters are suffering, mainly to the lost of 0-50 cc segment. The electric segment is still small with 3.5k units sold in the 2018 over the double than two years before but still marginal in the industry.

Actually the German market stands as the third biggest in Europe,  after France and Italy and ahead of  Spain and Turkey.

At Global level the market is only 24th, ahead of Spain and Guatemala and behind Democratic republic of Congo and Kenya.

 

Competitive Arena

The market is almost concentrated with the Top 10 brands holding 79% of the total volume, while 239 brands have registered at least one units in the 2018.

Following the huge surprise reported for the 2018, when Piaggio ended as market leader overtaking the local icon BMW, in the first nine months of 2019 the R1250GS launch – with a dramatic immediate success in Germany as in the rest of Europe – restored the natural ranking and BMW was back on top of the list, even with a wide gap over all followers. Actual sales at September were 24.203 (+12.7%) with the new R1250GS at 8.857 sales, with 5.1% of total market share.

In second place Piaggio with 21.498 sales (+7.4%) and 12.4% of share and in third Honda selling 18.214 units (+2.4%) with 10.5% of market share.

In fourth place Yamaha with 15.564 units (+1.3%) followed by KTM with 15.090 (+3.2%) and Kawasaki with 13.431 (+8.0%).

HarleyDavidson ranks in 7th place with 9.482 sales (-6.6%) ahead of Peugeot with 7.250 (-5.0%), Suzuki with 6.954 (-4.8%) and in 10th place Kymco with 4.969 (+14.4%).

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